Joosr

A Joosr Guide to… Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner

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  • Irina Gosselinkhas quoted6 years ago
    Most of the tasks we complete in life are learned through a similar technique: try, fail, analyze, adjust, try again.
  • Irina Gosselinkhas quoted6 years ago
    This approach works well in any scenario: simply consider the average, then adjust it according to any additional or unique information that you have.
  • Irina Gosselinkhas quoted6 years ago
    Whenever you make a prediction, always remember that no event or situation is entirely unique.
  • Irina Gosselinkhas quoted6 years ago
    Good predictions involve much more than just a yes, no, or maybe guess; they contain comprehensive detail that can be measured, and adjusted over time.
  • Irina Gosselinkhas quoted8 years ago
    To make a good prediction, a forecaster must avoid ambiguous language, instead using specific numbers for probabilities—and the more detail, the better.
  • Irina Gosselinkhas quoted8 years ago
    trong forecasts should use specific numbers for probabilities, rather than vague phrases, or what is known as “elastic language” (when we are told there is a “fair chance” or a “serious possibility” of something happening). Numbers make a forecast exact, which decreases the risk of confusion. In addition, it shows the observer that the prediction is an estimate—a conclusion reached by the forecaster that has been developed due to evidence-based research and comparison, rather than a subjective judgment.
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