• Introduction to Decision Making
• Scenario Planning and Prediction Markets
• Group Mechanics
• Heuristics and Programmed Decisions
• Probability and Base Rate Neglect
Decision Making Essentials You Always Wanted to Know prepares new managers and leaders to make those tough decisions they face by providing them with a tool box of decision analysis techniques to help them understand and analyze the decisions they make.
The chapters describe key techniques of decision analysis, including:
• Cognitive biases and Prospect Theory
• Probability and Expected Value
• Bayes Theorem
• Multi-attribute decision making, including the SMART, Elimination by Aspects, and Even Swaps methods
• Game Theory
• Prediction Markets
• Brainstorming and Groupthink
• Black Swan Events.
Each chapter provides clear examples of the decision making tools and includes practice examples to help train the reader in using these critical tools.