George Friedman

Now the challenge is making sure the economy doesn't decline faster than the population. Ideally, it should continue to grow in spite of population decline.

But when this cycle climaxes, the United States will be smashed by demography, energy, and innovation crises.

The collapse of Russia in the early 2020s will leave Eurasia as a whole in chaos. The Russian Federation itself will crack open as Moscow's grip shatters

urasia will become a “poacher's paradise.” For the countries around the periphery of the region, there will be extraordinary opportunities to poach. The vast region is rich in resources, labor, and expertise. The collapse of central authority will be an opportunity for countries on its periphery to take advantage of the situation. Fear, need, and avarice are the perfect combination of factors that would allow the periphery to try to exploit the center.

The fragmentation of NATO is a given once the Germans and the French opt out of defending the Baltic countries.

y the 2020s and 2030s, as Chinese and Russian instability increases and as foreign presences rise, the Japanese, like others, will have to defend their interests.

The guarantees made by France and Britain in 1939 did nothing to protect Poland against Germany or Russia. The United States will be different. It is not a power in decline, but a young, vigorous risk taker. To Poland's pleasant surprise, the United States will be strong enough to block the Russians.

The collapse of the Russians will give the Eastern Europeans both the opportunity and the need to adopt a more aggressive foreign policy in the east. Eastern Europe will become the most dynamic region of Europe.

What goes west can go east, and if the Russians crumble, then an eastward movement out of Eastern Europe is inevitable. In this scenario, Poland becomes a major and dynamic European power, leading a coalition of Eastern European countries.

he United States will have a very real interest in Eastern Europe once the Turks start to make their move in the 2020s. And that will likely be enough to block the reemergence of German and French power.