How Crypto Prediction Market Polymarket Signaled Early That Biden Might Drop Out - Ep. 670

Prediction markets are gaining mainstream traction, particularly with the upcoming US elections. In this episode, Nick Tomaino, founder of 1confirmation, which is an investor in Polymarket, explores how platforms like Polymarket identified the possibility that President Biden might drop out of the campaign before the mainstream media did. He talks about the journey of Polymarket, the challenges it faced, and how it overcame them to provide a credible platform for betting on political outcomes.
Finally, Nick explains why prediction markets are currently illegal in the U.S., the implications of the Supreme Court striking down Chevron deference, and what the future holds for prediction markets in the U.S.
Show highlights:

00:00 Intro

01:28 Why prediction markets like Polymarket finally gained mainstream traction, and how 1confirmation became an early investor

04:01 What challenges Polymarket faced in its journey to mainstream recognition, and how it managed to overcome them

07:22 How prediction markets contribute to bringing more truth to the world, particularly in the context of media narratives and social media algorithms

12:52 What challenges have arisen from conflicts in resolving prediction markets on Polymarket

19:00 How bets are created and how the wording and resolution of prediction markets is managed on Polymarket

21:56 How trading volumes affect the credibility of prediction markets on Polymarket

22:38The regulatory environment of prediction markets in the US and whether the elimination of Chevron deference by the Supreme Court will have a positive impact on these markets

28:35 Crypto News Recap

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Guest

Nick Tomaino, Founder & General Partner at 1confirmation
Links
Recent news on Polymarket:

Unchained: Polymarket Hits Record Highs in Monthly Users and Trading Volume Due to Presidential Election

Crypto.news: Polymarket reverses Oracle decision on Barron Trump's involvement in DJT meme coin

Decrypt: Ethereum ETFs Approved by the SEC? Yes—But Don't Bet On It - Decrypt

Dune dashboard: Prediction Markets

Commentary:

Vitalik’s tweet: “Prediction markets and Community Notes are becoming the two flagship social epistemic technologies of the 2020s. Both truth-seeking and democratic, built around open public participation rather than pre-selected elites. I want to see many more things like this.”

Nick Tomaino’s tweet: “2024 will go down in history as the year prediction markets went mainstream.”

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